PROBABILITY OF AUSTRALIAN COVID VAX DEATHS OCCURRING BY CHANCE

Grok gives the answer…..

On 4 June I issued a Substack based on Dr. Susan Niblett’s interview with Topher Field. CLICK HERE.

In this Substack I referred to the 1042 deaths reported to the Australian Therapeutic Goods Administration Drug Adverse Event Notification scheme (DAEN). Of these 1042 deaths reported (of course it is recognised that only about 1-2% of actual adverse events including deaths are officially reported), 35 cases of death occurred on the same day of COVID vaccination but none of these 35 cases were properly followed up by the TGA to assess if the COVID vaccine actually caused the deaths. This is amazing in itself and shows a gross level of incompetence and/or wilful blindness.

Now, the TGA officially claim there have only been 14 deaths caused by the COVID vaccines so far. These deaths were obviously followed up and assessed by the TGA. Because the 35 deaths (above) are obviously not part of the cohort of 14 admitted deaths assessed by the TGA……it follows that the TGA are assuming these 35 deaths occurred by sheer chance on the same day as their COVID vaccination.

What are the chances that the TGA is correct?

So I asked the social media X artificial intelligence platform GROK to help answer this question. Below is the question I asked GROK and the response.

GROK QUESTION:

What is the probability that 35 Australians would die by sheer chance on the same day they received a Covid vaccine?

GROK ANSWER:

Calculating the exact probability of 35 Australians dying by sheer chance on the same day they received a COVID-19 vaccine requires several assumptions and data points, including the total number of vaccine doses administered, the baseline daily death rate in Australia, and the timing of vaccinations. Here's a reasoned approach based on available information:

1. **Total Vaccine Doses and Population**: As of early 2025, over 70 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines have been administered in Australia (based on cumulative data up to mid-2023 and ongoing rollout). The population is approximately 26 million, with eligible individuals (aged 5 and over) being around 24 million.

2. **Daily Death Rate**: The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reports an average of about 450–500 deaths per day in recent years, though this varies with age and health conditions. During the pandemic, excess deaths have been noted, but the baseline pre-pandemic rate provides a starting point.

3. **Vaccination Rate and Timing**: Vaccines were administered at varying rates, with peak periods in 2021–2022. If we assume an average of 100,000–200,000 doses per day during the rollout (a rough estimate based on historical peaks), the number of people vaccinated on any given day could range widely.

4. **Probability Framework**: The probability of a person dying on a given day is approximately 450–500 / 26,000,000 = 0.000017–0.000019 (or 1.7–1.9 per 100,000). For a group of 100,000 vaccinated individuals on a single day, the expected number of deaths by chance would be 1.7–1.9. The likelihood of exactly 35 deaths occurring by chance in this group follows a Poisson distribution, where the probability of k events is given by

P(k) = (e^-λ x λ^k)/k!

with λ being the expected number of deaths (e.g., 1.9).

For λ = 1.9 and k = 35

P(35) = (e^-1.9 x 1.9^-35) / 35!

This calculation yields an extremely small probability (on the order of 10^-43, indicating that 35 deaths occurring by sheer chance in a single day's vaccination cohort is highly unlikely.

5. **Contextual Considerations**: The reported 35 deaths on the same day as vaccination (noted in some sources) occurred over the entire rollout period, not necessarily on a single day. If these 35 cases are spread across multiple days (e.g., over months or years), the probability per day becomes even lower, as the event is diluted across time. Additionally, correlation does not imply causation—many of these individuals may have had underlying conditions, and temporal association alone doesn’t confirm vaccine linkage.

6. **Critical Analysis**: Official reports (e.g., from the Therapeutic Goods Administration) indicate only 14 deaths were likely linked to vaccines out of nearly 1,000 investigated, suggesting most same-day deaths are coincidental given the large population and natural mortality rate. The lack of thorough investigation for all 35 cases (as noted in some reports) raises questions about data completeness, but it doesn’t inherently support a causal link.

**Conclusion**: The probability of 35 Australians dying by sheer chance on the same day as receiving a COVID-19 vaccine, if confined to a single day's cohort of 100,000–200,000 vaccinations, is astronomically low - effectively negligible, around 10^-43. However, if these 35 deaths occurred across the entire vaccination campaign (over 70 million doses and several years), the event is less anomalous and more consistent with random variation, though still rare. Without precise daily vaccination and death data for each instance, a definitive probability can’t be calculated, but the TGA’s findings suggest most cases are not vaccine-related. For a more accurate assessment, detailed epidemiological data would be needed. END OF GROK RESPONSE

For those mathematically challenged, 10^-43 means 1 divided by 10 raised to the power of 43 ie the probability that these 35 deaths occurred by chance is 0.00000000000000000000000000000000000000000001

But the TGA say there is nothing to see here…move on.

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